How to spot and take your pick?

Am I really so good??? Then why I lost? There is a advise from a lot of people. Run away while you are winning. I cannot do it no matter how hard to try. I just wanna bet every match. My though is to gather a lof of ammo to stake on my sure winning pick. Most of the time, I wasted my credit before I get to bet my pick.

Maybe its time to share my wisdom. Hope I can get some donation for this.

Lesson 1

If you look at the stats almost 50% for win goes to home team. This is due to motivation factor by the support. The home crowd. The more popular team it is, the best the team perform. There is why many underdog create upset at home

How to pick a good home team to win?

EDIT AND REMOVE THE CONTENT.....
I have remove this part of content and I think it should remain a trade secret.
For those who seen this part - good for you. :)

Please note the disclaimer. This is not 100% foolproof especailly when player get sent off or disaster that dampen the club morale(I will touch on this later).
Please note that winning away does not mean a great result. For example Barca winning away at 0-2 with Xerez Deportivo is just a norm and the next week game at home is still unpredictable. Alway wait at least half a season past to determine which team is strong or weak. You never expect Liverpool is falling behind in the league from tottemham and Man city this season.

You can try next week...
Tenerife to win Getafe next week. They may get a good result against Getafe. But note they Getafe is doing well too. so try some on Tenerife playing at home next week.